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flugeryl


Posts: 2307
Joined: Oct 2004
Last Visited: 12:40
11th Mar 2021
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Early Snow and its predictive value
Date Posted: 10.43hrs on Tue 23 Oct 18
We get snow on the hills late October and early November reasonably regularly, which has resulted in skiing on the grassy slopes of the Lecht or high up in Cairngorm.

But my question is...How predictive is this of the snow volumes and snow days we will get later in the winter?

Winter long range forecasts are not accurate enough yet in themselves.

Be Nice to Skiers, they have it hard enough already
alan


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 19:43
29th Feb 2024
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Re: Early Snow and its predictive value
Date Posted: 11.23hrs on Tue 23 Oct 18
Not very, though prolonged cold or significant snow through mid November and at least the first half of December has a tendency to be a front-loaded winter, with a warmer and less snowy than average spring.

Compare winter 2009/10 and 2010/11 - the harshest spell of winter weather in 2010 was arguably the early part of the 2010/11 winter, but while the Ptarmigan Tow run into June 2010, we were down to just half the Ptarmigan Tow by 14th April 2011.

However over the history of the commercial ski areas one strong indicator has been the occurrence of good skiable snow cover before the end of October and it's not been a good indicator and is referred to those who've been skiing here the longest as 'skiers folly'.


paraffin


Posts: 580
Joined: Mar 2007
Re: Early Snow and its predictive value
Date Posted: 19.15hrs on Tue 23 Oct 18
About as good an indicator as a heavy crop of rowanberries on the trees.
Which have been quite phenomenal this autumn.
alan


Posts: 10768
Joined: Nov 1994
Last Visited: 19:43
29th Feb 2024
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Re: Early Snow and its predictive value
Date Posted: 21.21hrs on Tue 23 Oct 18
paraffin Wrote:
About as good an indicator as a heavy crop of rowanberries on the trees.
Which have been quite phenomenal this autumn.


Watched a flock of redwings strip a rowan tree this morning. An impressive feeding frenzy the likes of which I've not seen here before, impressive given how big the berries were and the sheer number of them.

Maybe they know something we don't! tongue sticking out smiley
paraffin


Posts: 580
Joined: Mar 2007
Re: Early Snow and its predictive value
Date Posted: 20.51hrs on Wed 24 Oct 18
Yep,
Those Redwings know a thing or two.

The Glencoe Cuckoo never made an appearance last spring. And look at the Summer we had!
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