Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
The first few days of March are going to be pivotal looking at the ensembles. The operational runs are generally heading in a favourable direction, but there is something of a trend in the ensemble sets to rebound the Geopotential heights over and just SE of Southern England.
That means by 7th March there are a cluster of runs that are positive from our perspective and a cluster of runs that are a disaster because they'd pump heat back North over the top of us, re-enforcing the stubborn heights to the SE/E of us causing a polar trough to dig down into the Atlantic. Thus cold air sinks South of our latitude in the middle of the ocean and the further it digs down the longer the Southerly fetch hitting us becomes.
It's an opportunity for a pattern reset and the way this winter has been to date, you'd think that whatever it settles on during the first week in March could well then lock in for the remainder of the month. It will as this winter has been to date, potentially a very fine line between triumph and disaster (yet again)!
Edited 3 times. Last edit at 13.06hrs Mon 25 Feb 19 by alan.