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Mountainaddict


Posts: 271
Joined: Nov 2006
Last Visited: 19:38
6th Jan 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 18.45hrs on Thu 27 Dec 18
We've all got everything crossed - but still relatively early days Carsey. Could yet be skiing into May....

alan


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25th Nov 2023
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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 19.27hrs on Thu 27 Dec 18
carsey Wrote:
Seems like we struggling this year


Sustained lift served snowsports pre Christmas has been the exception rather than the norm in the history of Scottish Skiing, indeed for the West pre New Year openings have been historically rare.

It's why one very frustrating aspect of Scottish Snowsports is that there are a large number of people who will stampede toward a queue for one or 2 lifts and a few narrow strips of ice in November or early Dec, but be nowhere to be seen in April when most of the mountain is open with beautiful spring corn snow!

The trouble with this Sudden Stratospheric Warming lark is if it does blow the Polar Vortex into fragments and generate a tropospheric response - high or mid latitude blocking can be persistent, thus it can be a surprisingly fine line between jackpot and disaster for us in terms of how the long wave pattern sets up.

If high pressure is stuck limpet like over Southern England or just SE of England mid January than permission granted to panic! eye popping smiley

[edit]

Also pointing out that there could have and would have been a fair bit of lift served snowsports on CairnGorm by now under different circumstances!



Edited 1 times. Last edit at 19.29hrs Thu 27 Dec 18 by alan.

Snowweasel


Posts: 395
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Last Visited: 11:14
16th Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 17.06hrs on Thu 3 Jan 19
[www.severe-weather.eu]

Its going to get colder and snowier

carsey


Posts: 400
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22nd Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 18.58hrs on Thu 3 Jan 19
Hopefully it sorts things out to get a decent covering down. Looking good from tuesday onwards. Hopefully the west will get a decent hit too!

flugeryl


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11th Mar 2021
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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 12.29hrs on Fri 4 Jan 19
looking promising

Be Nice to Skiers, they have it hard enough already

Attachments: 17th jan 2019.png (298kB)   17th jan 2019 snow risk.png (110kB)  
alan


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25th Nov 2023
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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 13.08hrs on Fri 4 Jan 19
Minus 30c 850 hPa temps at our latitude about to head into the Western Atlantic. If the daughter polar vortexes dropped into different locations something totally of the scale stupid could occur, be it extreme crippling cold or if that sort of cold hits warmer air over the Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis !

DonaldM


Posts: 871
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10th Aug 2019
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 15.54hrs on Fri 4 Jan 19
alan Wrote:
Minus 30c 850 hPa temps at our latitude about to head into the Western Atlantic. If the daughter polar vortexes dropped into different locations something totally of the scale stupid could occur, be it extreme crippling cold or if that sort of cold hits warmer air over the Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis !


Does that mean it is going to snow?

alan


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25th Nov 2023
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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 16.11hrs on Fri 4 Jan 19
Even the ensemble sets are still flip flopping and scenarios that would push towards record breaking at both ends of the temperature scale continue to show up.

Will cold dig into Scotland on the first attempt, or need several goes? Forecast model watching is quite dramatic unlike the present weather borefest outside the window!

However good news is the ground which particularly in the West got saturated is frozen solid and its currently -0.5°c at 2800ft at Glencoe. Got the digital thermometer back online there.

Being able to transiston into a pattern that gets some snow down with it being preceded by a mild wet stormy spell would make a big difference.

carsey


Posts: 400
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22nd Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 18.20hrs on Sat 5 Jan 19
Doesnt seem like its as good as initially expected. sad smiley

Mountainaddict


Posts: 271
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6th Jan 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 17.47hrs on Sun 6 Jan 19
Any updates - good or bad - from those in the know??

kammy


Posts: 295
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Last Visited: 21:23
2nd Mar 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 18.35hrs on Sun 6 Jan 19
According to BBC monthly outlook Southern stratospheric warming has occured, polar vortex will filter into UK later on, hopefully we will have a late season finish on a good note.

carsey


Posts: 400
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Last Visited: 17:11
22nd Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 20.15hrs on Sun 6 Jan 19
Met office reckons some snow for the summit at Glencoe.

heres what the models are reckoning for the 850s.

T48hrs

ECMWF


UKMO


GFS(P)




And at T144

ECMWF


UKMO


GFS(P)




Mike_w


Posts: 1061
Joined: Jan 2004
Last Visited: 06:19
12th Aug 2019
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 23.23hrs on Sun 6 Jan 19
It promised such delights a week or so ago too and look how it turned out..


Mike in Edinburgh
Assorted scottish pics - www.prog99.com

carsey


Posts: 400
Joined: Jan 2016
Last Visited: 17:11
22nd Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 23.28hrs on Mon 7 Jan 19
2nd half of January isnt looking too bad!

awrightski


Posts: 158
Joined: Jan 2016
Last Visited: 10:02
2nd Dec 2020
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 09.20hrs on Tue 8 Jan 19
seems to be the story of the winter so far though Carsey, the cold weather is always a week or so away in the models then nothing happens!

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