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dhorsley


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16th Mar 2021
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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 17.17hrs on Thu 15 Nov 18

That says to me its going to be (very) warm until the 18th Nov, when it will start to cool down, and then from the 20th it has no idea as from then the runs all diverge - yes the ensemble average is below the 30 year average so there is some hope, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't cool down.


RobC


Posts: 209
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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 22.07hrs on Thu 15 Nov 18
Latest ensemble is even more optimistic about a prolonged below average cold spell.

Approx 15 degree change in 4 days at around 4000ft !

New sledges ordered!





Edited 2 times. Last edit at 22.14hrs Thu 15 Nov 18 by RobC.

Attachments: gfs ensemble.png (26kB)  
awrightski


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2nd Dec 2020
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 09.32hrs on Fri 16 Nov 18
looking cold enough by Tuesday/Wednesday to run some conventional Snow canon at Cairngorm... Isn't that the idea?

dhorsley


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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 10.29hrs on Fri 16 Nov 18
That's getting better, the runs are tightening up and its staying cold, lets hope it comes about.

awrightski


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2nd Dec 2020
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 10.38hrs on Mon 19 Nov 18
so.... the cold spell seems to have disappeared overnight!

alan


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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 17.41hrs on Tue 20 Nov 18
awrightski Wrote:
so.... the cold spell seems to have disappeared overnight!


Northern blocking is building, below average for the coming week and the ensemble average is at or below average throughout the latest GFS runs.

Perhaps the block will be a bit to close for significant precipitation yet, but some of the media headlines about a Beast from the East were absolute garbage !! If we get a less stable flow from the NE them that can give impressive convection as sea surface temps are still relatively high as this time of autumn. Can bring substantial snow to the Lecht and CairnGorm in off the Moray Firth! Something to keep an eye out for.

Mountainaddict


Posts: 271
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6th Jan 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 21.59hrs on Mon 3 Dec 18
Cooling down at last, with a bit of snow forecast.

Really surprised to see that the opening of the Lecht and Glencoe on Snow Factory snow HAVEN'T made the front page of Winterhighland...it's all still just Warren Miller....

awrightski


Posts: 158
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2nd Dec 2020
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 09.04hrs on Tue 4 Dec 18
I'd imagine commercial obligations come first MR Addict.

kammy


Posts: 295
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2nd Mar 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 00.10hrs on Sat 15 Dec 18
Just checked Netweather.tv they are forecasting over 50cms of snow possible in Glenshee today and 93cms of snow over next 7 days but mostly at higher elevations, will be interesting to see if it pans out as forecasts suggest.


[www.netweather.tv]

Snowweasel


Posts: 395
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16th Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 13.22hrs on Thu 20 Dec 18
The Polar Vortex is on its way.......
[weather.com]


kammy


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2nd Mar 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 00.22hrs on Sun 23 Dec 18
Unfortunately the weather into New years not looking good with displaced high pressure and
south westerleys bringing mild conditions.

alan


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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 01.02hrs on Sun 23 Dec 18
As the mild air aloft advects over us and inflates the high it is all about where the high goes next. It can be a fine line between bingo and disaster !!



A sudden stratospheric warming looks to be getting going - that can weaken or displace the polar vortex in the sort of time frame of the chart above. Right things look like happening, will they fall into the right places for us?!



Edited 2 times. Last edit at 01.07hrs Sun 23 Dec 18 by alan.

Attachments: 14D03A0A-E099-4E14-BE04-7C07E13A0BDA.png (40kB)  
kammy


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2nd Mar 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 07.37hrs on Sun 23 Dec 18
I hope you are right Alan, just dont want to see dreaded repeat of 2016/2017 weather patterns.



Edited 1 times. Last edit at 13.27hrs Sun 23 Dec 18 by kammy.

alan


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Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 15.33hrs on Thu 27 Dec 18
Models now toying with cold zonality, could be bingo in the West if that came off, but just about anything could still happen atm from a BBQ January to an ice age one!!

carsey


Posts: 400
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22nd Apr 2021
Re: The Mother of all Snow Ramping Threads 2...
Date Posted: 16.52hrs on Thu 27 Dec 18
Seems like we struggling this year sad smiley

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